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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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market analysis
【XM Market Review】--USD/BRL Analysis: Bounce Off of Lows as U.S Political Intrigue Lurks
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Market Review】--USD/BRL Analysis: Bounce Off of Lows as U.S Political Intrigue Lurks". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The USD/BRL went into the weekend near the 5.3500 ratio and is correlating to a nervous Forex market rather well. A high of nearly 5.3735 had been seen earlier on Friday, this after a low of around 5.2750 had been traded on Tuesday.
The USD/BRL remains within the stronger lower elements of its long-term price range. The currency pair closed around the 5.3500 ratio as the weekend began. The USD/BRL touched a low of almost 5.2750 on Tuesday of last week. The move higher in the USD/BRL correlated to the broad Forex market as Friday’s price action started to show signs of nervousness regarding the potential of a U.S government shutdown happening in the middle of this week.
The lower price action seen early last week also mirrored many major currency pairs, but the USD/BRL like all other major currencies is vulnerable to safe haven pursuits being made by nervous financial institutions. And while the lower trend in the USD/BRL has been rather clear, the incremental move higher started producing price velocity upwards on Thursday and Friday of last week.
U.S Economic Data and Narratives
Some analysts may have other explanations for the move higher in the USD/BRL starting on Tuesday of last week outside of the potential U.S government shutdown, but U.S economic data on Thursday and Friday of last week was better than expected via growth numbers and inflation remained tame. It does appear financial institutions could believe the USD had been oversold, but the influence of nervousness www.xmmaker.coming from a potential political fight in the U.S is rather important.
U.S equity indices also turned choppy last week and finished lower than they had started going into the weekend. The current values of the USD/BRL are solidly within the lower framework of their one month technical perspectives. However, if market action remains nervous today and tomorrow, and if U.S political noise becomes louder, day traders of the USD/BRL may start looking at resistance levels above as potential targets.
Over-Confidence When Caution is Needed
The move lower made by the USD/BRL in recent trading has produced a solid bearish trend. The currency pair has correlated well to the broad Forex market. However, speculators need to brace for the potential of short and near-term volatility being caused by nervous large players who do not have clear outlooks regarding the U.S government.
- If the Democrats decide to try and have a prolonged fight with the Trump White House this could cause volatile conditions in Forex, in which safe havens start being sought.
- The USD is looked upon as a safe haven by many financial institutions and traders should not be surprised if the currency starts being bought if nervousness grows.
- While the lower depths of the USD/BRL make sense because of recent Federal Reserve developments, short-term tracks higher may not be out of the question.
- Targeting the 5.4000 may be too overly ambitious for speculators who think upside is a potential today and tomorrow, but if the U.S government does shut down this level could see price action mid-week.
Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 5.3610
Current Support: 5.3410
High Target: 5.3990
Low Target: 5.3210
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